Despite lots of rhetoric, the next-generation video game landscape is lining up basically like the last one did: one system comes in early (this time Microsoft instead of Sony), two go for power (Sony and Microsoft), one tries to be different (Nintendo both times). The current generation will take all of that to the next level: the graphics will be sharper, and Nintendo will be even more different.
What I worry about is that basically Nintendo’s banking on innovation, and I’m not sure that’s something you can count on. Certainly a game can be visually stunning without having the most polygons. World of Warcraft was never the most graphically intense, but the art direction is so through the roof that it doesn’t matter. Not evenyone liked The Windwaker’s cell shading, but it was effective. Still, can you count on all your developers to hire great visionary artists that can overcome the temptation to just push for photo-realism in lieu of real art? Probably not. Likewise for game design. A generic shooter or brawler can always be fun, but the Wii seems to be begging for something different on each title, and different might not always work. What’s going to happen is that some developers will take chances with the new controller, and it won’t quite work. Hopefully others will find the sweet spot and succeed. Needless to say, the first few waves of games will see a lot of cool stuff, and there will be some amusing changes as the platform matures.